Continuing Coverage of Elections

Let's take a look at the breakdown of seats by Right vs. Left since that is really the important factor in this election.

NATIONAL RELIGIOUS BLOC
Knesset Seats
Likud 27, Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Is Our Home) 15, Ichud Leumi (National Union) 4, Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) 3, Shas 11, United Torah Judaism 5

Total Seats 65

LEFT WING BLOC
Kadima 28, Labor 13, Meretz 3, Ra'am Ta'al (Arab party) 4, Balad (Arab party)
3, Hadash (Arab/Jewish party) 4

Total Seats 55

As has been stated, Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu has tremendous power to swing the blocs. He is being rightly called "kingmaker" here, as it really lies in his hands whether the Knesset will be a right wing or left wing Knesset.

He has not yet publicly stated his preference between Kadima and Likud -directly - however, he did reiterate his preference for the Knesset to be right wing. He said however, that whoever heads the government has to change their ways. Does this mean he is leaning towards Livni and expects her to change (can a leopard change her spots?) to a centrist/right or did he mean that the government has to change to a centrist/right instead of the balygan it is now.

One of the issues is that neither Labor nor Shas say they will sit with Lieberman's party, so that complicates things a bit.

Anything is still possible. Kadima could convince Lieberman to join them, and then - G-d knows what will happen. But I am praying that the right wing victory will hold.

One thing seems clear...the assumption in the national camp that Bibi had the election in the bag and it was ok to take the vote to the smaller parties was just plain wrong...and somewhat foolhardy. This is why I was so adamant about voting Bibi. It seems odd that something so obvious didn't appear so. While it is true that Lieberman took many votes from Likud, there was also miscalculation on this issue in the national camp. In the final analysis, I believe there were a number of right wing national camp voters who felt like I did and voted Likud, for which I am thankful. One or two more seats and Bibi would have had that victory PLUS the right wing bloc victory which would have made it a sure thing.

On the other hand, if Bibi is successful in putting together his coalition, he has promised he will turn to the smaller parties and it's good to have a number of them represented. The national camp does NOT have an automatic shoe-in however. Bibi COULD, although I don't think he will, put together a coalition of Likud 27, Yisrael Beiteinu 15, Labor 13, and Shas 11, reaching a coalition number of 66, (5 above the necessary 61) but adding the eager right wing independents would bring him to a strong 78, and there is no reason to think that won't happen. (It would depend on whether Shas will sit with Lieberman or UTJ).

Anyway, the game's not over. New information today indicate the results of the IDF and foreign emissaries votes may not be published until February 18, another full week.

Let's hope the rains from Heaven were indication of a strong Zionist government emerging.