New Information Regarding R.Elyashiv's Statement

It has been reported this evening that the news stories (see earlier post) regarding Rabbi Elyahsiv's pronouncement that there can be no political compromise on civil marriages in Israel, were false. He has apparently made no such statements.

Rabbis who are close to the religious leader said "Rabbi Elyashiv did not rule out the possibility of civil marriage between non-Jews" and suggested that the rumors were started by Kadima in an effort to undermine the coalition building efforts being undertaken by Netanyahu. (Source:INNews)

Coalition Negotiations Continue As Livni Rejects Unity Government

The negotiations for coalition partners took a definite turn today when Bibi's second meeting with Livni produced no results towards a unity government. Netanyahu will now need to shore up his natural partners on the right.

(The following discussion has been reported now to be incorrect information. It has been suggested that it was a rumor started by Kadima to thwart the coalition building being undertaken by Bibi Netanyahu. See my later post. I am leaving it in until we know what the correct story is, and if it turns out to be true that Kadima started this rumor for such a purpose, it will show an example of the lengths Livni will go to to unseat Netanyahu.)
What is worrisome today, however, is the announcement by Rabbi Yosef Shalom Elyashiv, a leading rabbi of the ashkenazi haredim, stating that there could be no compromise on civil marriages within Israel. The ashkenazi haredim are represented by UTJ (United Torah Judaism) and they hold 5 seats in the upcoming Knesset. This announcement could make it difficult for UTJ to sit with Yisrael Beiteinu, whose platform includes civil marriage. If they refuse to sit in the government then Bibi cannot form a majority and we would have to go to elections again.

It should be noted that the civil unions being discussed are NOT for Jews in Israel, but for non-Jews, who cannot get married according to Jewish law anyway. There are no civil unions of any kind allowed in Israel. Non-Jewish residents and citizens who are not part of a religious community must leave the country to get married, and it goes without saying that it is financially prohibitive to have family and friends accompany them for the ceremony.

It's a more complicated subject than I wish to cover in this post, but to make this a stumbling block to forming a government is simply unacceptable, in my opinion. Shas, which represents the sephardic haredim is not opposed to civil unions for non-Jews, and while Shas wields its own club on other matters, it at least is thinking a bit more clearly in this case.

Hopefully, because the rabbi who made this proclamation is not the Ashkenazi Chief Rabbi (who is Yona Metzger), the UTJ may not be bound to obey. My understanding is that it is an opinion rather than a ruling. Rabbi Elayshiv is considered a great halachic authority by the haredim however, and they may have difficulty disregarding his opinion. Yisrael Beiteinu, for it's part, dropped the positioning of the civil union issue to the bottom of it's list. Perhaps they could drop it altogether as a condition for joining, but still work very hard to see it passed as a part of the next government.

In our precarious world situation, it behooves all parties to not be so dogmatic.

Next week will bring more coalition news and hopefully some progress.

Meanwhile we are all a little wiped out here in Israel. Sorry for the absence in posts this week...be back on Sunday after Shabbat ...or before.

Text of Netanyahu's Statement at HaNassi

The following is the text of Bibi Netanyahu's statement on Friday February 20, 2009, after receiving the charge from President Shimon Peres to form the next government.

Mr President,

I deeply appreciate your lifelong commitment to the State of Israel and your tireless work on its behalf, which have continued these past few days.

I accept the task you have assigned me with humility and with a profound appreciation for the enormous responsibility that you have placed upon me -- the responsibility to achieve security for our country, peace with our neighbors and unity among our people.

Mr. President,

As President of Israel, as a great Israeli patriot, you have rightly spoken of the need, also expressed by most members of the Knesset, for unity.

Because at this fateful hour, the state of Israel faces enormous challenges. Iran is developing nuclear weapons and poses the greatest threat to our existence since our War of Independence. Iran’s terror proxies confront us in the North and South and the worst global economic crisis in the last 80 years threatens the jobs and livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of Israelis.

For many decades, Israel has not faced an accumulation of so many great challenges at one time.

Faced with such extraordinary challenges, we need a new attitude, a different attitude, an attitude that expresses national unity.

These great challenges obligate us to work together and to unite all the forces within our people. I call on the members of all the parties, both those who recommended me [to the President] and those who did not recommend me, to put politics aside and to place the good of the country first.

I turn first of all to the chairwoman of Kadima, Tzipi Livni and the chairman of the Labor Party, Ehud Barak and say, let’s join hands and work together to secure the future of the State of Israel.

I ask to meet with you first to discuss forming a national unity government for the sake of our people and the country.

I know that we have different approaches on many important issues but I also know that we are all committed to working for the benefit of our country and our common future.

That is why I believe that, given the seriousness of the hour and the needs of our country, we can find common ground and a common path that will lead Israel to security, prosperity and peace.

The great tragedies in the history of our people happened when we did not unite in the face of great challenges. But the opposite is true as well. The great victories occurred when we put our differences aside and stood together as one during moments of truth. Today, we face such a moment of truth.

Let us unite, let us join together and ensure our future, our children’s future and our country’s future.

www.en.netanyahu.org.il

Netanyahu and Iran

With Netanyahu emerging as the upcoming Prime Minister of Israel, so much of the focus is on whether or not he will disrupt the precious "peace" plans that the world, including our departing government leaders, have tried to impose upon us.

Very few have really listened to what came out of his mouth in his first statements. It wasn't about the Palestinian State or our relationship with Europe and America, about which Olmert and Livni were so paranoid.

His first words at a ceremony held at Beit HaNassi had to do with the existential threat from Iran. He said briefly that Iran's drive for nuclear weapons poses "the gravest threat to our existence since the war of independence." Netanyahu has been speaking on this for many years...but few have listened.

His strong words eerily coincided with the news this week that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) "suddenly discovered" that Iran does in fact have enough low grade uranium to develop a nuclear bomb right away.

One of the few media outlets taking notice was Investor's Business Daily (IBD). In a stunning editorial that reflects the sobering reality of our precarious world, IBD compares Netanyahu's emerging role vis a vis Ahmadinejad with Churchill's role vis a vis Hitler.

Read this very important article at Investor's Business Daily, entitled Ahmadinejad Vs. Netanyahu.

(hyperlink provided with permission from Investor's Business Daily)

Likud to Kadima to Likud Once Again?

What I have been mulling around in my mind the last few days was just published in the evening news medias: If Tzipi Livni refuses a unity government with Likud, then several key Kadima members may return to Likud - having jumped ship earlier when Ariel Sharon broke away and formed the new Kadima party.

I am appalled however that Bibi is still mentioning Barak to continue as Defense Minister (and for that matter, Livni as Foreign Minister). I am assuming he feels that under his leadership they would act differently. These suggestions are from the media and not necessarily out of Netanyahu's mouth, so whether they are really still true or not, we cannot be certain. One report tonight said that Bibi was even willing to give Livni veto power over government decisions. Such a position would certainly undermine and undercut the wishes of the electorate for a right wing government.

Bibi is rightfully very concerned that a strong opposition could block every move a right wing government tries to make. So, while a unity government has some advantages, it would have to be carefully put together. It seems to me that some of the good people in Kadima coming over to Likud would give Netanyahu the best of both worlds. An addition of capable centrists to his government would give the broader base he is seeking, but he wouldn't be stymied by the beligerence of Livni and Barak.

At the same time, Kadimas position in the opposition would be weakened. Bibi is still stinging from what he perceives to be his mistake in the late 90's to not form a unity government, but he needs to be very thoughtful and careful, not reactive as he puts this coalition together.

Peres Charges Netanyahu With Task of Forming Government

The immediate wait is over. Today Peres made the decision to charge Bibi Netanyahu with the task of forming the government coalition rather than waiting until Sunday as he had indicated. It appears he had little choice, as Livni made it very clear she would not sit with Netanyahu. Bibi, for his part will continue to press for the unity government, as he feels it will be advantageous to have a broader coalition.

More on Sunday. We can all rest a little better over Shabbat now that the decision has been officially made and communicated. B'H

Shabbat Shalom

Addendum To The Day's Politics

Latest is that Peres will meet with Livni and Netanyahu separately, expecting to appeal to them to form a unity government. Interestingly, it is Livni who doesn't want it, Bibi feels it would be advantageous. I don't know, I'm a bit nervous for what Peres might pull in the 11th hour. I hope it goes smoothly tomorrow and Bibi will be given the charge, however, for some reason, Peres is indicating he won't make his announcement until Sunday. Why so long?...the mandate is clear.

In the meetings with President Peres, Labor's Ophir Pines-Paz had something interesting to say about Netanyahu. Discussing who Labor would or would not recommend, it was reported that Pines-Paz said "....Netanyahu is a political, ideological adversary and we do not share the same views," .... "We respect him, but we cannot recommend him. We share some views with Livni, but unfortunately, she opted for Yisrael Beiteinu over the Left in hopes for a rotation with Bibi. She made it easier for us in that sense, by choosing not to be a part of us." (color highlighting mine)

I found it interesting and important that for all the disagreements and negative attacks, this Labor Knesset member still held respect for Bibi. It says a lot for who Bibi is, but also Pines-Paz. I'm not a Pines-Paz fan, but I find it commendable that he spoke in such a way.

7:00 pm Update

The last meeting is taking place at Beit HaNassi (House of the President), or perhaps is finished. This final meeting was with United Torah Judaism which already signed an agreement with Bibi Netanyahu.

Ichud Leumi endorsed Likud this afternoon, and all three Arab parties abstained, that is they recommended no one. So, with UTJ's recommendation for Likud, the Netanyahu led party will garner the 65 seats projected for them, with Kadima at only 28.

This parallels exactly what the voters wanted, and no matter how Tzipi Livni tries to say the people elected her, not Bibi, it just doesn't line up with the reality of the vote.

Livni continues to state that she will not sit in a Netanyahu led government, and will head to the opposition, joining Labor, Meretz, and the three Arab parties.

Nonetheless, Peres continues to state that he will invite BOTH Netanyahu and Livni to Beit HaNassi tomorrow, presumably to discuss a unity government and to try to persuade both parties to join together.

Quite frankly, this is very annoying, and since the President has the final say to do (unilaterally) whatever he wants, he COULD bypass the will of people and recommend Livni. He could, but I don't think he will. Of course, should he do that, there would be enormous public uproar, AND she can't put together a coalition anyway, so it would fall back to Bibi in the end. It would simply waste precious time and leave the three stooges in limbo power for another couple of months. omg. Let's hope Peres will heed Livni's objection to joining a unity government, and simply hand the request over to Bibi as he should.

I need to remind the readers however, that it's not over yet. !! Now, comes the task of actually putting together the coalition. There will be demands and expectations, and a lot of hammering out of details. There will be budget expectations from each of the parties for certain ministries and programs, and all this will take a while.

Then once the coalition is in place, the budget has to be passed by the whole Knesset, which, remember, will include the opposition. Hmmm. Can you see some dilemmas rising up?

Tomorrow I will briefly discuss the power or lack of power that the opposition parties have and what it means for a government here in Israel when the entire sitting government is right wing, and an entire strong opposition is left wing.

For now, let's wait for Peres to give Bibi the nod...hopefully tomorrow, before Shabbat.

News Flash : Shas recommends Netanyahu Bringing Likud total to 56

Shas has completed their recommendation meeting with President Peres, endorsing Bibi Netanyahu for the next government:

This gives Likud 56 seats so far, with Kadima at 28 seats

Updating as we go...

Lieberman recommends Netanyahu

The recommendations by the Knesset parties are starting to trickle in, but the suspenseful waiting for Avigdor Lieberman's vote is now over. Yisrael Beiteinu has recommended Likud for the party best able to put together a coalition.

He added a caveat however, and tried to stipulate it was conditioned on Livni being in the government. Actually there are conflicting reports as to whether he states it as a qualification for his support, or simply a desire on his part to see Livni in the government.

Bibi has said that they also seek a broad coalition, so it was already a given. The question remains of course, whether or not Kadima will sit in a unity government with Netanyahu at the head, and with Shas in the coalition. One news flash on Haaretz indicates Livni has signaled that they will lead the opposition and not sit in the government. This isn't necessarily a good thing for the national camp...it's hetze/hetze (half/half) which I will explain later.

Labor and Meretz are recommending no one. Here is the breakdown so far available in the English press:

Recommendations:
Kadima (28 seats): Kadima
Likud (27 seats): Likud
Labor: No one
Jewish Home (3 seats): Likud
Meretz: No one
Balad (Arab): No one
Yisrael Beiteinu (15 seats): Likud
Shas: Meeting as we speak
Ichud Leumi:
United Torah Judaism:
Hadash (Arab/Jewish)
Ra'am-Ta'al (Arab):

Officially at this point, Kadima has 28 seats and Likud has 45 seats. The expectations are for Shas, Ichud Leumi and UTJ to go with Likud which would give them 20 more seats or 65 total. The Arab parties are expected to follow suit with Balad and Labor and abstain from recommendation.

One never knows in the last minute what the remaining parties will do for sure, so it's not over til it's over....or "someone" sings as they say......so stay tuned.

Meetings Underway - Peres Makes Headlines

At this hour, a few blocks away, Israeli President Shimon Peres is meeting with Kadima, and shortly thereafter will meet with Likud as the selection process begins. Election Judge Eliezer Rivlin turned over the official election readings to the President earlier this evening and stated that there were no abnormalities. (There had been several reports of abnormalities on election day, but...they seem to either have been forgotten, or were in fact, corrected, or ...who knows?)

Tomorrow Peres will meet with Avigdor Lieberman, Yisrael Beiteinu, discussing to whom Lieberman will throw the weight of his 15 Knesset seats.

The biggest news of the day for the national camp, however, is Shimon Peres's admission that the withdrawal from Gush Katif was implemented in an incorrect way, and he was wrong about how he thought about it. Early reports about his statement were sometimes headlined in a way that looked like he felt he was wrong about supporting the withdrawal altogether.

The President's office was quick to correct that misconception, explaining he was FOR the withdrawal, just not the way it was implemented, especially the lack of coordination with the Palestinian Authority.

Whew, for a moment I thought that the President....ah, well, I guess I will refrain from further comment on this one.

On Hold

It seems that whole world is on hold (and on edge) a little bit, waiting for the elections results here in Israel to be finalized and a new government to be formed. Nations and heads of nations are offering their opinions and their threats.

Such a tiny country, yet such world wide intrigue.

We are all waiting to see who will be the Prime Minister and what his government will look like - the "64 thousand dollar (shekel) questions."

Speaking of shekels and dollars, the dollar is very high against the shekel right now, as Stanley Fischer, head of the Bank of Israel, continues to buy dollars continues talk of dropping interest rates even more. All this to stave off more fall out from the economic woes in America, where Obama's stimulus package is the biggest news.

Still, when you read an article like one published by Israel National News, stating that Washington might extend some behind the scenes manipulations and meddling to force a unity government with Kadima and Likud, one has to wonder ...doesn't America have enough of it's OWN problems not to try in meddle in ours???

I don't know if such statements are true or not, but we do know that several US Presidents have definitely interfered in Israel's elections in the past. Bill Clinton even sent his ambassador to openly campaign for Shimon Peres when Bibi ran for office in 1996. It is certainly not unprecedented.

Waiting for Thursday........or maybe even tomorrow.......

Oddly Enough...

....Muqata is reporting that a second Spiderman has lassoed cars on Israel's highways. (See previous post).

This time (the 2nd in 24 hours) it was on Toll Road Highway #6, near Kfar Saba. (Hey, where was Joe Settler this afternoon?)

Election Updates and Today's "News"

For those (outside of Israel) who are still confused about our elections, let me refresh you on how the political mechanisms works here... and the next steps.

1. Primaries are held in each party in order to create a list of candidates from that party who will await Knesset seats received from the national elections. Each winning candidate in the primary is assigned a certain position on the list, depending on the primary vote, and that position corresponds with the number of seats earned in the national voting. For example, if a party wins 10 seats in the national election, the first 10 people on its list, determined in the primaries, will be "seated in the Knesset." A party must reach a 2% threshold of the popular vote before garnering any seats in the general elections.

2. General elections are held.

3. After the number of seats won by each party is determined*, the President of Israel approaches all the parties in the Knesset to see who they recommend, based on the elections, to form the next government. Usually it is the party winning the most seats, but not necessarily so. There have to be 61 seats held by the winning party to have a mandate to govern. If no one wins the 61 seats, which is normally the situation, then the party most able to put together a coalition to reach a combined 61 seats or above, is the one recommended.

*COUNTING THE VOTES: HERE IS WHERE IT GETS COMPLICATED

4. After the elections, there are TWO ROUNDS OF DETERMINING THE SEATS:

Round One: The popular vote calculated for seats won right away. This includes waiting for the IDF, hospital and prison votes. This has now been completed. The results are as follows:

RIGHT WING BLOC: Likud 27, Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Is Our Home) 15, Ichud Leumi (National Union) 4, Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) 3, Shas 11, United Torah Judaism 5

Total Seats 65

LEFT WING BLOC: Kadima 28, Labor 13, Meretz 3, Ra'am Ta'al (Arab party) 4, Balad (Arab party)3, Hadash (Arab/Jewish party) 4

Total Seats 55

Based on these results, even though Kadima won 1 more seat than Likud, the Right Wing Bloc won 65 seats as opposed to the 55 seats for the Left Wing Bloc, so it is thought that Netanyahu has the better chance to form a coalition.

There is plenty of talk, bartering, banter and rumor flying through the media and the street regarding what will happen.

The seat count we have at present is from Round One.

WHY WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR PERES TO APPROACH THE KNESSET:

Round Two has not yet been completed. It will be completed by Wednesday the 18th. What is Round Two??

Round Two: In Israel there is something called Vote Sharing. Prior to the elections, each party has the opportunity to engage in vote sharing. There is a formula (beyond me to decipher) that determines how many votes it takes to make one seat. There will always be left over or surplus votes, not enough to add another seat, that seem to go to waste. To avoid the problem of wasted votes, parties can share those extra votes. Sometimes it might make a difference for one of the parties to gain one more seat by combining the extra votes of the two parties. The agreement with whom to share is made BEFORE the elections.

Here is how the vote-sharing pairing went this year:
Likud with Yisrael Beiteinu,
Kadima w/ Green Party (this pairing is now disqualified as the Green Party did not reach the 2% threshold and has no seats in the upcoming Knesset)
Labor w/Meretz
National Union (Ichud Leumi) w/Jewish Home
Shas w/United Torah Judaism

These calculations are now being made. It is possible that Yisrael Beiteinu's extra votes combined with Likud's extra votes will make an extra seat for the combined parties (Likud 27 + Yisrael Beiteinu 15 = 42 then COULD become 43 seats total)

Peres has stated he will approach no party until that final and official calculation is made. Until then, it is all speculation.

So, Israel is turning to other news now while we wait. Here are some of the more, uhh, interesting headlines, showing we are back to normal.

1. Man dressed as Spiderman lassos cars with his Spider web (ropes) at the Rosh Ha'ayan Junction. (Ynet)

2. A professor of chemistry at Hebrew University was caught (this past Shabbat) cutting the eruv wires in Bayit Vegan neighborhood. (Eruvs are set up to allow religious Jews an area where carrying on the Sabbath is allowable). The police who arrived at the scene beat up the rabbis who refused to get in the police car to testify, as it is against the Sabbath regulations for a religious Jew to ride in a car on the Sabbath. (INNews)

3. Orders have been given to open the Jewish neighborhoods of Hevron to Arab traffic and also talk of opening to the Arabs, another street which links the Jewish areas of Hevron. The second opening would facilitate the rebuilding of Arab stores on those streets. Additionally orders have been give to relinquish checkpoints in the Shomron, a reward for not rioting during the War it is said.
(No one had yet claimed responsibility for the orders, but it is suspected that Barak has done so, perhaps a vindictive last hurrah before retiring to the opposition? - speculation not fact on the who and why). (INNews)

Ahh, Israel. Don't you love it?

To Lighten Your Day....

....enjoy the blossoms of the almond trees (hashkediya) on my other blog site http://www.fromthehillsofjerusalem.blogspot.com/

Up in the Air

Israeli pundits are having a field day. What / who / how a political coalition is going to emerge from the present balygan is being predicted and prognosticated every which way. Lieberman left the country, leaving Bibi & Livni to either stew separately or sit together without him. He'll be back in a few days with his final say. Labor is already out, saying they will sit in the oppostion and Olmert is advising Livni to sit in the opposition, favoring Netanyahu to form the government without Kadima. This might sound odd, but....hmmm, there could be a lot of reasons. The given one is that a right wing government will be unstable especially with Lieberman in it, and soon Kadima will be back in.

In addition to the above, whatever coalition comes together STILL has to develop and pass the budget for the new Knesset. IF a budget cannot be approved, then it's back to square one....and Kadima would be asked to come back in and try to form a coalition.

It will be interesting if no one can accomplish the dual tasks ahead, coalition plus budget. Then what???

Stay tuned... Isn't Israel fun? Never a dull moment, for sure.

Caroline Glick On Post Election Future

As usual, Caroline Glick says it succinctly and directly. Please read her Jewish World Review article regarding the options and consequences that are now in front of Benjamin Netanyahu as he seeks to put together a coalition.

Enter the Netanyahu government

by Caroline Glick

Who won the election on Tuesday night and what do the results tell us about the composition of the next government?

Israeli voters decided two things on Tuesday. First, they decided that they want the political Right to lead the country. Second, leftist voters decided that they want to be represented by a big party so they abandoned Labor and Meretz and put their eggs in Kadima's basket.

These two decisions - one general and one sectoral -- are what brought about the anomalous situation where the party with the most Knesset seats is incapable of forming the next governing coalition. Despite Kadima leader Tzipi Livni's stunning electoral achievement, she cannot form a coalition. Binyamin Netanyahu will be Israel's next prime minister. The Likud will form the next coalition. ............

Read the entire article here

No Surprise

I wondered in an earlier post who the prisoners who get to vote in our elections might be voting for.

Jameel @ Muqata provided a glimpse from Channel 2:

From Muqata
8:34 PM On Channel 2 TV tonight, we were shown different ballots that were cast by soldiers and the others. Many soldiers wrote "Gilad Shalit" on their ballots.The ballot I found chilling was cast from a prison -- hand-written on the ballot in Arabic was the word: حماس (HAMAS)

Votes in - No Change

Although Likud was the most popular amongst the soldiers, and the gap between Kadima and Likud narrowed to 20,000 votes (from 36,000) it didn't change the number of seats allocated...Kadima still has 28 and Likud has 27.

There is something here called vote sharing between parties which will now be figured out, but it won't change the status quo either.

More later this evening.

Updates While We Wait For The IDF Vote

1.) The IDF vote also includes foreign emissaries, patients in hospitals and prisoners. It has been reported however that dozens of soldiers have written in Gilad Shalit for Prime Minister. The soldiers don't forget him, even if the government did. If I were counting ballots these would clearly be a vote against Kadima and Labor. We should know the unofficial numbers by the end of the day. (minus the invalid Shalit ballots).

2) A lot of conflicting reports emanating from Ichud Leumi regarding their meeting with Netanyahu. It is being reported by INN that Ichud Leumi, Shas and United Torah Judaism are meeting to present a united religious faction, which together would bring 20 seats. That would be a good plan.

3) The possibility of Kadima entering Netanyahu's government may not be as horrifying as it sounds. There are some good right wing people in Kadima. Under a right wing government they could return to their former ways.

4) Lastly, the funny story of the day is that Stas Meseznikov, head of Yisrael Beiteinu's negotiating team is saying that Avigdor Lieberman might recommend himself for Prime Minister. Anything is possible in Israeli politics.

A Letter to My Friends in the National Orange Camp

I have always considered myself a part of the Orange Camp...those vehemently opposed to the expulsion from Gush Katif, fiercely dedicated to the Whole of Eretz Yisrael, totally against a formation of 2 States on Israeli soil.

I am a firm Zionist and believe that "post Zionism" is an oxymoron with regard to our People and our Land.

Yet lately I have found myself at odds with my friends in the national orange camp - over several issues. Some of it will remain "in house". But there is one subject about which I must speak out, and it is this:

I am really sick and tired of the Bibi Bashing that comes from within our camp.

It comes from all parts of the national camp....from leaders to the everyday activist. It runs the gamut from "he betrayed us with Wye and Hevron and we don't trust him" to criticizing his personality, his ego, his personal life, his motives, and on and on.

One would think this criticism is coming from Kadima, and in fact, it is one of the biggest boosters and encouragement to the Olmerts, the Livnis and the left that can be found in Israeli society today. They don't have to say much, our camp is doing their job for them.

Yet out of the same mouths that chastise and criticize and complain, come the words that they are running for the Knesset only to help Bibi. Excuse me, why would Bibi want help from those who don't think he does anything right?

I am sorry to say this, but there is a touch of arrogance about an attitude that boasts that these religious right parties are the ones that will shape and lead the government. Even if there is truth in it (which I am not even sure about) isn't the correct way to quietly go about the business of doing the job rather than self aggrandizement and ultimatums? Professor Arieh Eldad has spoken humbly, practically, and without judgement but unfortunately the same isn't true of many in the orange camp.

In 1998 I was privileged to be a part of Esther Leven's Voices United for Israel and at a meeting in Washington DC to support Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister. There were thousands and thousands of people from all over America. Israel was under great stress and the tension between Bibi and President Clinton was seething. The great encouragement and support for Israel and for Netanyahu personally in that meeting was so powerful and Bibi was so overwhelmed that he choked up and couldn't speak. That encouragement gave him such strength that as he went directly to the White House from the meeting, he told Clinton that Israel would do what it needed to do to protect itself. Clinton was furious, but Bibi stood his ground.

I share this story only because it is obvious to me that as we strengthen, not tear down, those individuals we profess to want in leadership, then they will do the better job.

How about remembering the good things that Bibi has done? Everyone complains about the Wye agreement but how many remember that on the day they were to be signed Bibi nearly derailed the agreement when he asked Clinton to release Jonathan Pollard. Clinton went crazy, and Bibi ended up signing it, for which the right camp was angry, but do we remember that 2 months later Netanyahu then cancelled implementation because Arafat did not live up to his promise? Bibi was the last prime minister "to make a serious effort for Pollard, and is the only one running for office who has actually visited Pollard in prison." (source) How often do we hear that said?

Hevron is continually brought up, how Bibi betrayed us by giving it away. Before Bibi ever assumed the Prime minister's office in 1996 he said, though he disagreed with the commitments that had been made by Rabin with Oslo, he would honor them. He said that at the time the nation was still reeling from the Rabin assassination, and he was trying to stabilize the country. The right camp thought he was just pretending and would really not honor Oslo. When Bibi did honor them, they called him a liar. Not true. While I wish Bibi would NOT have said he would honor them, he was true to his word.

This time around, Bibi has said quite clearly he will not honor the commitments made by the Olmert government and I for one, believe that he means it and will do so - and we need to stand behind him.

In other words, my national camp brothers and sisters, how about giving this man a chance to prove himself? How about coming around him and supporting him, not condemning him for all his past mistakes?

It seems to me that he is the most capable and willing of all the top candidates to accomplish the extremely important tasks ahead of us as a nation.

Let's not ask what he can do for our agenda, but how can we work together to accomplish what is a common goal for everyone in the national camp, Bibi certainly included, to strengthen and protect all of Eretz Yisrael.

Continuing Coverage of Elections

Let's take a look at the breakdown of seats by Right vs. Left since that is really the important factor in this election.

NATIONAL RELIGIOUS BLOC
Knesset Seats
Likud 27, Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Is Our Home) 15, Ichud Leumi (National Union) 4, Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) 3, Shas 11, United Torah Judaism 5

Total Seats 65

LEFT WING BLOC
Kadima 28, Labor 13, Meretz 3, Ra'am Ta'al (Arab party) 4, Balad (Arab party)
3, Hadash (Arab/Jewish party) 4

Total Seats 55

As has been stated, Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu has tremendous power to swing the blocs. He is being rightly called "kingmaker" here, as it really lies in his hands whether the Knesset will be a right wing or left wing Knesset.

He has not yet publicly stated his preference between Kadima and Likud -directly - however, he did reiterate his preference for the Knesset to be right wing. He said however, that whoever heads the government has to change their ways. Does this mean he is leaning towards Livni and expects her to change (can a leopard change her spots?) to a centrist/right or did he mean that the government has to change to a centrist/right instead of the balygan it is now.

One of the issues is that neither Labor nor Shas say they will sit with Lieberman's party, so that complicates things a bit.

Anything is still possible. Kadima could convince Lieberman to join them, and then - G-d knows what will happen. But I am praying that the right wing victory will hold.

One thing seems clear...the assumption in the national camp that Bibi had the election in the bag and it was ok to take the vote to the smaller parties was just plain wrong...and somewhat foolhardy. This is why I was so adamant about voting Bibi. It seems odd that something so obvious didn't appear so. While it is true that Lieberman took many votes from Likud, there was also miscalculation on this issue in the national camp. In the final analysis, I believe there were a number of right wing national camp voters who felt like I did and voted Likud, for which I am thankful. One or two more seats and Bibi would have had that victory PLUS the right wing bloc victory which would have made it a sure thing.

On the other hand, if Bibi is successful in putting together his coalition, he has promised he will turn to the smaller parties and it's good to have a number of them represented. The national camp does NOT have an automatic shoe-in however. Bibi COULD, although I don't think he will, put together a coalition of Likud 27, Yisrael Beiteinu 15, Labor 13, and Shas 11, reaching a coalition number of 66, (5 above the necessary 61) but adding the eager right wing independents would bring him to a strong 78, and there is no reason to think that won't happen. (It would depend on whether Shas will sit with Lieberman or UTJ).

Anyway, the game's not over. New information today indicate the results of the IDF and foreign emissaries votes may not be published until February 18, another full week.

Let's hope the rains from Heaven were indication of a strong Zionist government emerging.

Results This Morning

The good news this morning is that the gap between Kadima and Likud has been narrowed to one seat, with Kadima winning 28 seats to Likud's 27.

However the total right wing has won 65 seats and the left wing 55 seats counting the Arab vote of 11 seats.

For those who are confused by the discussion of who will be the prime minister and the leading party, it is not the popular vote in Israel that leads the Knesset but the party who is most able to form a coalition.

With the IDF vote still out, the final results, as I mentioned last night, cannot be know until they come in...supposedly Thursday, although there are some reports they may be in by the end of the day.

Avigdor Lieberman has tremendous power at this point. If he will stay the right wing he has claimed to be, then Bibi will for sure get the nod to form the coalition.

More in a few minutes.

...Til Morning

Signing off for tonight....I'll be bringing current results and reactions in the morning. Real votes are starting to come in but it is way too early to tell if they are differing from the exit polls.

Interesting update from Joe Settler posting on Mukata.:

43% of the votes counted :

Votes counted so far: 1135125

Invalidated votes: 14595

Valid votes: 1120530

He also reported massive rainfall and hail falling on the Kinneret! Now THAT tells me something about the election results.... A change in the making.B'H

IDF Vote and Presidential Invitation

According to Ynet News, the results from the IDF voting will not be available until Thursday, so final results of the election cannot be counted until that time.
I think this bodes well for Bibi as the soldiers see him as a stronger leader than anyone in Kadima.

Peres has said that he will not meet with party factions until next week. Many rumors are floating around as to who will do what regarding coalitions.

Barak has backtracked (surprise!!) and said he will not after all resign. (He had said earlier in the day that if Labor didn't receive 20 seats he could not continue as Defense Minister.) Labor looks like they are receiving 13 from the exit polls.

Remember, actual votes are not in yet..

Comparing Polls

JPOST now reporting a Kadima win as well:

YNET:Below are the complete results of the Smith-Ynet poll:

Kadima 28
Likud 26
Yisrael Beiteinu 16
Labor 14
Shas 10
United Torah Judaism 6
Hadash 5
Jewish Home 4
United Arab List – Ta'al 4
Meretz 4
National Union 3

According to Channel 1, Kadima won 30 Knesset seats, Likud won 28 mandates, Yisrael Beiteinu won 14 seats, and Labor ended up with 13 mandates. Channel 2's exit poll predicted that Kadima won 29 Knesset seats, Likud came in second with 27 mandates, Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu won 15 seats, and Labor won 13 mandates.

FROM HAARETZ

Most But Not All Exit Polls Show Kadima edging Likud

With the exception of the Jerusalem Post, most exit polls are showing Livni (28-30) to be slightly above Bibi Netanyahu with 26-28. The Jerusalem Post shows Bibi at 26 but Livni at 23.

Remember that Exit polls are often very skewed, so lets not panic yet. The good news is that the Right definitely won many more seats, and it is doubtful that Livni can form a coalition, in which case, Bibi would be able to. This means however, that we would have Olmert for 2-3 more months.

Personally, I have yet to meet ONE person voting for Kadima.. or even able to say a single good thing about them. It makes me really wonder...maybe the exit polls were taken only of voters who are journalists and news commentators.

I will post the comparative results shortly.

Election Tidbits As We Wait

By 8pm the percentage has reached 59.7%. Kol hakavod chaverim (friends)

I have been out on the street a bit, in between falling trees and pelting rain and in my mixed but very traditional neighborhood, Lieberman is still a high choice. Almost everyone I speak to says that they don't care so much for the leader of the party they voted for, but voted for the party platform. I find that interesting, as in America, people are truly swayed by the personality of the party leader.

Tonight, I even met my first Meretz voter. When I told him that, we laughed. He is a young man I have known for awhile, but I didn't know his political persuasion. He told me his thoughts and they were very intriguing - they caused me to stop and think about a lot of issues. His reasoning was not without wisdom and I am really glad he said what he did....in short, he expressed some very valid points for voting Meretz. Whether or not Meretz actually expresses these views in their platform is something I will need to investigate, but I liked what O. said.

One sweet election story comes from the Bedouin village of Rahat... home of the IDF NCO, the Bedouin tracker, who was killed at the Kissufim crossing a few weeks ago. It seems the storm knocked out their electricity, but the community was determined not to let that deter their voting. Between candles and the light of cell phones, they are continuing their voting. According to a Ynet report, one polling station official joked that the candles and cell phones were "... creating a very intimate atmosphere."

50% Vote

In a continued upswing from 2006, by 6pm 50% of Israeli voters have gone to the polls. Some Knesset officials feel the higher turnout was due to the bad weather as those with the day off had little choice of fun outdoor activities.

Could be...this would be a hafook (upside down) result that was good for a change. (...as opposed to the bad weather keeping people AWAY from the polls).

Projections are if the trend continues as people get off work now, the percentage could reach 69%.

We're just chillin', waiting for the results. Keep you posted. Rain and winds dying down..

Pounding Rain and High Winds Election Day Drama

Jerusalem is experiencing pounding rain and high winds right now, with darkness over the City. Hopefully, the burst will subside shortly. Just before the rains started, but the winds ferocious, half of the tree in front of my house came crashing down at the top of the steps into the building. Thanks G-d I didn't leave just then, as I was thinking to do!!

There is some talk of extending the hours of the open polls if the weather is too severe for too long. We'll see.

If nothing else the weather heightens the drama of the day.

Other reports of drama: Fighting broke out between Labor and Kadima voters at the entrance to Jerusalem according to an INN source. Another fight between between police and party activists in Ramat bet Shemesh. (source) Numerous reports (68 by 2:30pm) of stolen or missing ballots, ballots with Lieberman's name written on the back, forged ballots (also Yisrael Beteinu) smuggled into the voting areas...the list goes on. On David Yalin Street in Jerusalem, a young orthodox man reportedly overturned the table containing the ballot notes and stole all the 'gimmel" slips (United Torah Judaism). Many polling stations in the north never opened either due to the weather or missing ballots or unknown reasons.

The 12,000 prisoners in Israel are happily exercising their citizenship rights, even security prisoners. Voting is high among the inmates - over 80% in 2006. I wonder who they vote for.

This just in: As of 4pm 41.9% of Israelis have cast their vote..up 3% from 2006. Keep going friends!!!!!!!

Election Underway!!

Surprising the elections pundits, the stormy weather has NOT kept people from voting. By noon 23.4% of eligible Israelis have voted..up 2% from previous elections. Update: By 2pm the numbers are 34%. Mazel tov to us!!!

The mood on the street is upbeat, almost party like in places. I am hoping it is because people feel they really can make a difference and remove the current government and all it's trappings. Of course, here in Israel election day is a public holiday for many or most Israelis in the private sector (not mandatory however) and those who do work can receive up to 200% salary. Grocers and restaurants are usually open and and they, plus those in critical services (transportation, water, electricity etc.), are not eligible for the bonus pay. My local Mister Zol (Mr.Cheap!!) grocers is offering free salad or hummus if you vote. (no "I voted" stickers here in Israel - you just have to tell the truth!)

Lieberman has a very strong backing on the street. A good friend at my cafe was on his way to vote but unsure between Lieberman and Bibi. A young man just back from miluim (reserve duty), he understood the need for strength in addressing our challenges. After talking with him for awhile, he said I had convinced him to vote Bibi, but then he shared his own thoughts that Bibi was stronger now than when he was previously PM. He's learned to be strong, my friend said, and passed the test. My young friend is intuitive and wise, and I hope he is right on this one...I'm counting on it too.

A balygan in Umm-el Fahm, an Arab town in the Shomron. Conflicting stories are emerging about what exactly happened, but it revolves around Ichud Leumi's presence to monitor ballots and Arab rioting to prevent them from being there. Umm el-Fahm is traditionally notorious for ballot fraud. I will address this subject in a later post as the information becomes more clear.

I will be updating throughout the day and evening here in Jerusalem.

Guess I better go get my hummus!!

Election Thoughts Part 3

Three more days. A sobering time for Am Yisrael. This election is not just any election, this election decides the future of our Land...not forever, as I am still hoping God will have the last Say!!...but at least for the near future. There are many important issues such as the economy and education but the main concern must be our Land. In that context, the position of the potential leaders vis a vis Iran is also crucial.

Briefly, the parties and their "platforms" regarding Eretz Yisrael and Iran, with some comments in blue.

Kadima - (Tzipi Livni) 2 state solution regardless of the reality of any of the dynamics or the players (or lack there of). It supports the unilateral giving up all of Judea and the Shomron, the Golan and dividing Jerusalem and giving half to the PLO for a state. Land give away, appeasement, dependency on Europe. Regarding Iran, follows advice of America and Europe and does nothing. [It needs to be said again that this country is sick and tired of how it's leaders have abused the electorate's wishes and put the country in peril, over and over. Kadima shouldn't be anywhere in the picture as far as garnering seats, yet oddly enough, it remains a viable party. It's hard to understand why it stays as high as it does in the polls...if it really does. It is not too far fetched to wonder if the polls are skewed by the media in their bias for Kadima.]

Likud - (Bibi Netanyahu) Supports a 2 state solution eventually, if ever viable... but not now - only if and when the Arabs who want it are ready, responsible and able. Bibi proposes first trying to strengthen the economy of the palestinian Arabs to see if that moves them towards a future statehood. [In all fairness I don't think he is talking about "giving" them money...but some other method (let's hope so anyway!!) ] If a state is ever viable, it would not include any part of Jerusalem or the Golan, they will remain in Israel's hands forever. In terms of Judea and the Shomron, Bibi has stated that he would not retake Shechem (Nablus), Jenin and the Arab part of Hevron, but would encourage and enable Jewish settlement to expand and increase in the rest of Judea and the Shomron. Illegal outposts all throughout Israel need to come under Israel's laws, including all the illegal arab outposts. (which number in the hundreds if not thousands) Netanyahu would work with the Yesha (Judea & Shomron) leaders for the recognition of many of the Jewish outposts and those not able to come under legal status would be moved or dismantled. Regarding Iran, Bibi feels this is a very top priority and will not allow Iran to become nuclear, even if Israel needs to go it alone to insure that. He understands that Hamas and Hezbollah are Iranian proxies at our door, and is clear that we must destroy Hamas completely, not play a game of cat and mouse. Bibi is also adamant about returning Jewish and Zionist history and values in our education - something removed from the curriculum by Kadima and Labor and other left wing governments. [Needless to say, I don't agree with a 2-State solution, and I would like to see the cities of Shechem and others returned to us. I want to see all Jewish settlements and outposts remain and expand. The idea of helping the economy has never worked... BUT this approach is the only one of the three larger parties which stops the talk of unilateral giveaway, which addresses the illegal arab outposts, which is clear about the Golan and Jerusalem, is clear about Iran and Hamas and is clear about returning Zionist education to our schools. As I said earlier, at this point we need to STOP the appeasement and dismantling of settlements, we can deal with the other issues like Shechem and the rest down the line.]

Yisrael Beteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) Yisrael Beteinu (Israel is our Home) supposedly stands on a secular right wing platform but it isn't totally clear that it is such. Today, Lieberman has made headlines (and garnered votes) by speaking out against the 5th column of Israeli Arabs who have turned against the State. He is advocating an oath of allegiance to Israel and anyone not willing to take it cannot vote or cannot run for office (and perhaps not have citizenship? unclear). In the past he has advocated moving out the borders of Israel (meaning?) and relocating Arabs outside of that in a Palestinian State. He is very strong on Iran, which is also helping him in the polls. The Russian born Lieberman has attracted many from the Russian community and the platform includes civil marriage and other secular issues of importance to various non-religious communities. [It is clear that Israelis are sick of appeasement and want someone to be strong against the rising violence of Israeli Arabs. What is not clear from Lieberman's history, is where he truly stands with regard to a full two state solution and whether or not he really will do what he blusters. In the past he has advocated dividing Jerusalem, was agreeable to Barak's failed (thanks G-d) agreement with Arafat giving away 90% of Judea and the Shomron, so he is not trusted by the national camp - more on this later)

Labor (Ehud Barak) To tell you the truth, what does? Labor stand for? Beats me. Giving away and appeasement etc etc..and never bringing military incursions to victory...never finishing the job. Oy vey.

Ichud Leumi (Yaakov "Ketzelah" Katz) This national camp party, a revitalized National Union is actually the combination of four national camp factions: Moledet, the party started by the late (assassinated) Rechavam Ze'evi (represented by Uri Bank), Hatikva (Arieh Eldad), Uri Ariel who came from Jewish Home Mafdal (although Bayit Yehudi Mafdal still exists, now headed by Dr. Daniel Hershkovitz), and Yisrael Shelanu - the party of Rabbi Volpo and Baruch Marzel, but represented here by Dr.Michael Ben-Ari. There have been several splits and mergers and splits again within these smaller national camp parties - this is the current configuration. Ichud Leumi's platform is very clear: no to a Palestinian State, no to uprooting settlements, no to giving away Eretz Yisrael, no to appeasement; yes to expanding the settlements, yes to developing the Galilee, the Golan and the Negev with Jewish settlement, yes to Jewish education. Jerusalem must remain the undivided capitol of the Jewish nation and the Temple Mount open to everyone, especially allowing Jewish prayer. Regarding Iran and it's proxies, a military solution may be the only realistic answer. [As much as I agree with most, if not all, points in the platform of Ichud Leumi, I am concerned enough about several issues not to cast my vote for this party. ]

Let me discuss three issues, some of them pertinent to my vote for Likud, others simply something I wish to address because of the information we receive in the media or in our circles:

1) Lieberman's meteoric rise in the polls. At the beginning of the election period, Bibi Netanyahu had a very comfortable lead over all the other parties. He had drawn in some very good national camp people to Likud, people like Boogie Ayalon, and Benny Begin, and was showing very well in the polls, expected by all to be the next PM. Suddenly, Avigdor Lieberman is the talk of the town and has sky-rocketed in the pre-election polls, so much so that Bibi's assurance of victory is now tenuous and fragile.

It is very possible that on Tuesday, Likud and Kadima will be tied, or God forbid, Kadima actually win. Usually the head of the winning party goes to the President of Israel (Shimon Peres) and is appointed to try to put together a coalition. Should the two parties tie however, the next runner up is given the honor to suggest to the President who should form the coaltion. Some feel if Lieberman wins the third spot, he will in fact suggest that Kadima once again form the coalition.

Even though people are voting for Lieberman because they think he is a "change" and "hard line", the truth is that his history has shown him to be another political opportunist; thus it is hard to tell what would transpire should the situation occur where he was the one to recommend the party to form the coalition.

The small parties of the national camp have said that they are here to support Netanyahu and keep him to the "right" and to a national agenda, but if Bibi doesn't get in, it is a moot point. While it is very possible Bibi will reach out to the the independent parties and bring them into the coaltion as he has said he will do, most assuredly Kadima or Yisrael Beteinu will not.

The six or seven seats that might go to Ichud Leumi and HaBayit HaYehudi could make the difference between Bibi's victory or not. Therefore I feel it is imperative to keep my vote in the centrist national camp of Likud and do everything I can to assure Likud and Bibi Netanyahu of victory.

2) I want to address briefly the issue of Moshe Feiglin in the Likud and the fall- out from the fiasco of the Likud primary. If you recall, Moshe Feiglin won enough votes to place him #20 on the Likud list...a pretty nice achievement. Bibi, who is definitely not a Feiglin fan, did some gerryrigging to shoot Feiglin down to spot 36, where he can't realistically get a Knesset seat..and actually much to my relief. Nonetheless, it seemed stupid on Bibi's part, and perhaps bad judgement, as he simply brought more attention to Feiglin. Some, if not many, Feiglin supporters are now saying Bibi's decline in the polls is poetic justice for what he did to Feiglin. My answer to that is this: Moshe Feiglin's agenda was never a Likud one, yet ever since he joined Likud, and most dramatically after he won the 20th spot, Feiglin said over and over, he was going to "take over the party"...he was going to transform it to a different party." He says he is returning it to its' roots, but his agenda and the Likud roots are not the same. It seems to me that what Feiglin did and advocated was much worse and along with some other Feiglin issues, it was actually an unfortunate but necessary move on Bibi's part, to protect the broad "Am" ("all the" people) base of Likud .

Which brings me to point three:

3) Ichud Leumi is supposed to be a national camp embracing both secular and religious factions. Indeed, one of the top slots belongs to a strong secular leader - Arieyh Eldad, for whom I have great respect. Nonetheless the party comes across as a religious party, and even though they would deny that characterization if questioned, it is not apparent in their language and statements that they are anything other. This is something they need to think about and address if they desire to reach a broader population. There are thousands of Israelis who want to vote more Zionistically, but will not do so with a religious party. They are secular but fiercely loyal to the State. Ichud Leumi would do well to understand that dynamic if they want to expand their following.

There are some other issues I have with Ichud Leumi, some of it not unique to this party, but things I find myself taking issue with in general within the national camp. They are issues significant for me, but not something I am prepared to publicize at the moment. At some point down the road I am sure I will address those issues, but for now, we have enough to chew on.

Tuesday...a Day of Days ahead. Wish us well and that we act with wisdom in the voting booth. I will update other news as well as we move towards Tuesday.

Election Thoughts Part 2

Having outlined briefly the political landscape here in Israel in Part 1, it is time for me to write my personal reflections and decisions. If I get too long winded [I did] I will complete it in a Part 3. We'll see by the end of this blog :)

It hasn't been easy. Israeli politics, as I have said, are difficult for a lot of reasons. One reason, which one doesn't really understand until living here, is familiarity. Because the political figures are literally the neighbors down the street, the liking or disliking sometimes has more to do with what the wife said at the hairdresser or what the brother did in a bar mitzva. Or what the candidate himself did in the neighborhood.....did he pay for his coffee at the local coffee shop or did he expect gratis? Everyone knows (or has an opinion) about little personal incidents that form, not political decisions, but personal ones.

This is not true in American politics. Yes, the candidates have neighbors who know them personally, but the candidates don't mingle in public very often. Here in Israel, we are a very tiny country, and everybody knows everybody else's business...literally. Jerusalem is just a small town. So is Tel Aviv, but in different ways. The very intimate access to our politicians, while a lot of fun in many ways, nevertheless sometimes clouds our decision making.

That said, what do I think, how will I vote?

When I was in America (though traveling here very often, and staying for 2-3 months at a time) I was a dreamer. I dreamed about Israel, about Zion and how this is our Land. I fought fiercely both with and through various organizations and on my own, with my own two feet and hands, and with my writing, to support strong Zionist causes. I still do and I still will. This is the Land that G-d gave to Am Yisrael, and it needs to be in our custody.

But since moving to Israel three years ago I have changed. I still am a dreamer for Eretz Yisrael, but I have also become a pragmatist. What do I mean by that?

There are times when gut-level idealist energy is needed to accomplish a goal. There was such a time in our recent history. It was before the disengagement from Gush Katif. That was the time for the full force of the national camp to move in unison to stop the explusion. There was momentum, purpose and frankly, righteousness and truth on the side of the opponents to the expulsion - it could have been and should have translated into victory. That was not the time for pragmatism. Yet, in that moment, misplaced, ambitious and questionable pragmatism took the upper hand and lost the battle.

It was a tragedy. More than the homes and lives of the residents of Gush Katif were struck down. Our nation was dealt a blow with much more serious consequences than when an external enemy attacks. The self imposed expulsion tore deeply into the very soul of our nation, an event and an experience from which we haven't yet recovered.

But now, three and one/half years later, three and a half years of a government that says we are tired of winning, that giving away our land is the only alternative, after Gush Katif, after Lebanon, after Regev and Goldwasser, after Gilad Shalit, after rockets and missles raining down on the south, and continued threats (and very recently - activity - unreported in the mainstream media) in the north, our strength must take a different form than it could have shown in the Gush Katif saga.

Combine those three and a half years with the farce and tragedy of Oslo and we have a very serious situation. The momentum of the country is spiraling towards destruction and if the Kadima mentality gets re-elected, we are in deep deep trouble.

It may sound odd, therefore, for me to say that what we do NOT need now, is a loud shout and cry about how right we were about Oslo, about how right we were about Gush Katif, about how right we were about finishing the wars in Lebanon, and now in Gaza. What we need is for someone to stop the spiral downwards, to stop the give away, to stop the appeasement and after that, we can let the playing field level off, and THEN we can return with idealist fervor.

When I posted Part 1 I was still struggling with my decision as to whom to vote for. But two things have happened this week that have made my decision.

In light of these things, which I will explain in Part 3 (as this post is getting too long :), I now believe that it is imperative to vote for Likud. In today's political arena, with all I am observing, I believe it is the right thing to do, for several reasons, again, which I will explain in the next post.

(And I am very sorry, but Part 3 will have to be a motzei Shabbat article as sunset is on it's way. )

Shabbat Shalom

Election Thoughts Part 1

I have promised to write a bit about the elections here in Israel. It is a very complicated subject and not so easy to come to logical and effective conclusions. I have decided to break up the election discussion into at least two separate blogs. Part 1 as more of an overview, and Part 2 some specifics. In addition I will add updated and pertinent information as we move closer to Tuesday.

But to begin with, it needs to be said that we have been longing for elections - the whole of Israel - for a very long time. Since the Ariel Sharon fiasco and how he betrayed the electorate that voted in his party, to the continuum of what he did that is the current cadre of irresponsible "leaders", we are longing to rid ourselves of this seemingly never ending farce. These are not leaders, but corrupt heads of parties, and the trio of Olmert, Livni and Barak - the "three stooges" as they are called here - are held in disdain by the entire country for their lack of moral fiber and leadership, for their willingness to always put personal ambition ahead of the needs of the nation, for their folly in going to war with no intent to finish it or win, risking and losing the lives of our precious young men and women in uniform, for leaving the residents of the south alone to face the barrage of daily rockets for years on end....and on and on.

But, Israeli politics, alas how to explain it....even more, how to understand it. It's not democratic as in America, it's not parliamentarian as in Britain. Parties are elected, not people, and whomever is the head of the party which receives the most seats (not direct votes but seats determined by number of votes) is the prime minister. Each party has a list of candidates, and if a party receives 10 seats, e.g., theoretically the first 10 people on that party's list get a Knesset seat. Theoretically.

The problem of course is that people are "moved around and manipulated" for various reasons, some totally "legal", but the result is that the Prime Minister really does have control over the Knesset seats, and of course, his cabinet. And because he has the authority to remove anyone not agreeing with him, well...you can fill in the blanks. No one in the government is responsible to an electorate, only to the party. And to remain in the government a Knesset member must really shift with the party agenda, even if it ends up being diametrically opposed to what it stood for when elected by the people as was the case with Ariel Sharon.

Pretty bleak sounding, eh? It is.

If you are reading this blog you are probably already aware of the political landscape for this election, or know at least some of the major players. Kadima, Olmert's party being now headed by Livni, and Labor, headed by Barak are still led by two of the "three stooges", and not doing very well in the polls of course. Bibi Netanyahu, leader of Likud is either loved or hated, but is expected to win this election. However, some dramatic action on the playing field makes me wonder about that popular assessment.

First is that Avigdor Leiberman of Yisrael Beiteinu, is rising rapidly in the polls, and may upset the Likud lead because many more right wing Israelis are supporting the Russian Leiberman, even though there is much controversty surrounding him.

Parties like the Haredi Shas and the Bayit Yehudi, (Jewish Home), NRP (National Religious Party) and others remain stable as to their positioning from previous elections. Shas of course, is a larger party and garners many seats - 16-17 excpected in this election. Their biggest issues are monies for education and child support and because of their large number of seats will be courted by any party who gets in the top slot.

There are various small parties and the up and coming one for the national camp is the revitalized Ichud Leumi (National Union). Ichud Leumi is made up of both secular and religious Zionists, is the combination of four Zionist parties, and made up of some very fine people in my opinion. It, like Yisrael Beiteinu, threatens the wide lead that Likud enjoys at present because many of the people migrating to Ichud Leumi would have voted for Likud.

I want to say that I think the leaders of Ichud Leumi are men of high moral character, men who are known for their overwhelming support of Israel and loyalty to it's founding principles. Men like Arieh Eldad, and Uri Ariel are tireless workers and supporters of Eretz Yisrael and well known and trusted in the national camp. Newer names to many, like Uri Bank, an American oleh of many years and the well known (but not in the political arena before now) Yaakov (Ketzelah) Katz, founder of Beit El and Arutz Sheva and the man who has assumed the IL leadership, are all outstanding men.

You would think, that I, as a national camp person, would be thrilled to finally have someone or a party for whom to vote, and in some ways I am, but I am not entirely convinced that voting for Ichud Leumi is the way to go. Most of my compatriots are thrilled, excepting those who are part of the Feiglin camp (who is in Likud) and they will probably, though not assuredly, remain loyal to him. Without elaborating on that subject, I need to say however, that I am definitely NOT a Feiglin supporter, in any way shape or form.

So what's the problem? To be very frank, I think there are several problems which I will address in Part 2...thoughtfully.

Barak's Folly

There is SO much confusion at the national level with our "government leaders". but today was Barak's day to shine. In an interview with Ynet , Barak's explanation for his insipid pre-phoned bombing of empty warehouses and, oh yes, one police station, was this: "If we play our cards right and prevent further escalation than we have a good chance of some peace and quiet."

He went on to say that "it would be unwise to say why we waited to respond to the rocket fire, since Hamas is probably reading this as well."

To add further to his inane announcements, Barak made it clear that he, not Olmert, was the one making decisions: "The prime minister is kept abreast of everything. I briefed him on tonight's actions. He was aware of it, but I don’t think he should deal with such things." [Editorial note: It is quite obvious that NEITHER ONE OF YOU should be dealing with such things]

But his final blurt of stupidity came at Ben Gurion University in Beersheva. Speaking with students there, Barak said that the new Palestinian state could be made contiguous by connecting Judea (what is now Judea, but hoped to belong instead to the Palestinians) with Gaza via a 48-kilometer underground tunnel. Oh my G-d he really said that. Someone should tell our defense minister that in the eyes of Palestinians, tunnels = smuggling routes for weapons, drugs and money.

This is even worse than the Peter Principle (where every employee rises to his or her level of incompetence.)

Sunday News Update

A busy day ! Just a few things for your perusal.

1) Starting at 7am when 4 kassams were fired into Israel (one landing between schools in Sderot - no one hurt), and extending to 10 am when soldiers were fired upon at the Kissufim crossing, to noon, when four mortars landed in the Sha'ar HaNegev Regional Council (by this time 8 rockets fired into Israel). Then in the afternoon 4 more mortars and 1 kassam fired into Israel, again in the Sha'ar HaNegev Regional Council. 3 people wounded. Late this afternoon another rocket hit Sderot. Fatah (you know - the peaceful party headed by moderate Abbas) has claimed responsibility for them.

Folks, I have been counting. Since our unilateral ceasefire (remember we ceased not Hamas - Hamas lulled) there have been 32 rocket and mortar attacks, most of these are 3 -4 rockets in one attack...so taking a figure of 24 of the 32 attacks were multiple rockets we are talking well over 100 rockets fired into Israel. In addition there have been six to seven attacks against our soldiers at the border...one of the attacks killing one soldier and wounding three.

When the media says this is the 3rd attack or the 4th attack since our ceasefire, they are playing games with you.

2) Olmert deliberated all day what we should do.

3) And then he(they) had a brilliant idea, he and Barak. They ordered the IDF this evening to PHONE the Gazan residents to tell them they were going to bomb warehouses and terror centers in Khan Yunis and Rafah. Yes, I said PHONED...with a recorded message. Of course, all the Hamas leaders left the area and who knows what the h...ll they did to prevent the civilians from leaving. My blood pressure has stayed pretty normal throughout this whole affair until I read this report. And Barak has the AUDACITY to say "“Leave it to the Chief of Staff, to the OC [Southern] Command and with all modesty, to me as well,” he said. “We know better what to do and when.”

Playing Games with the lives of the residents of the south and with our soldiers should be a lifetime imprisonment offense AT LEAST, in my opinion

4) It was released for publication today (Army Radio, Muqata, INN) that the US stopped Israel from boarding and/or consficating the arms on the Iranian ship now being held by Cyprus. Excuse me? Are we the 51st state? (rhetorical) There is something very fishy about this ship. (pun not intended). If this is true, and the US itself boarded the ship and then let it go, and now Cyprus has backed off from their original statements of the ship being filled with arms and are saying they will take a second look...something is very strange. A second look? It was announced the ship was carrying arms destined for Syria to go to either Hezbollah or Hamas, and you need to look again to make sure ..what, that they aren't toy guns?????

Some kind of a deal has been made somewhere....and it is beginning to reek!!

5) Speaking of deals....Hamas is "leaking" information that they are initiating a one year truce or accepting Egypts' recommendation. Just before our elections? How convenient. Talk about reeking.


6) Thank G-d the shakedim (shkedim) are blooming, or I wouldn't be able to handle the news today.

Yaron London Speaks out Shocking His Audience

On a day where there is much news, escalated rocket attacks and high level confusion in our leaders as to what to do about it all, it is worthwhile to add a second outspoken opinion piece in this blogsite. This time the sentiment is coming from the left, but in an about face from the usual rhetoric. Yaron London, a television personality on the left, now feels that there must be an all out no-holds-barred military operation against Hamas.

In a article by Hillel Fendel in IsraelNationalNews, London's surprising article in Yediot Acharonot, and interview with Razi Barkai on Army Radio are discussed. It is very important to hear this (read this).

The truth cannot be ignored any longer. How many people will come forth and with courage state that they now see things they couldn't see before, remains to be seen. But hats off to Yaron London for his forthrightness. Let's not say "we told you so," but be thankful some are waking up. May many more join him.

The article by Hillel Fendel:

London: 'Population that Votes for Hamas Deserves to be Bombed'
by Hillel Fendel

(IsraelNN.com) Left-wing television and media personality Yaron London surprised many of his colleagues during the recent war against Hamas by calling for a no-holds-barred military response against the civilian population of Gaza.

London first outlined his views in an article in Yediot Acharonot, and then elaborated upon them for clearly-shocked interviewer Razi Barkai on Army Radio.

“It appears that we have exhausted the options of moderating Hamas fanaticism with measured responses,” London wrote, “and the time has come to shock the Gaza population with actions that until now have nauseated us - [such as] killing the political leadership, causing hunger and thirst in Gaza, blocking off energy sources, causing widespread destruction, and being less discriminating in the killing of civilians. There is no other choice.”..........

Read the entire article here
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/129703

Nadav Shragai of Haaretz - An apology is needed

In light of my posting on Friday - regarding the reason we are in Gaza now being because we "unilaterally withdrew" 10,000 beautiful people from Gush Katif, destroying their homes, their lives, their trust - I want to call your attention to an article written a couple of weeks ago by Nadav Shragai, a columnist/writer for Haaretz. He writes Just say you are sorry [to the beautiful people of Gush Katif.]

His comments and advice to Israel was and still is perhaps the only answer to moving forward. No matter what promises are made by our politicians without this component he suggests, healing will not occur and we will continue in our quagmire. I waited for the mainstream press to pick up his article, alas none did, and it goes without saying that none have followed his advice.

Please forward this to any contacts you have in the government, the media and/or among your friends who were so sure that disengagement was right. We don't need to say "we were right and you were wrong," we just need to say, all of us, even those of us who fought against the expulsion, we are sorry, please forgive us. Because perhaps those of us who fought, just didn't do enough.

w w w . h a a r e t z . c o m
Last update - 01:56 20/01/2009
Just say you're sorry
By Nadav Shragai
Now, after the war and just before the election whirlwind sucks in our politicians once again, it would be appropriate for many of them to go out of their way and visit the mobile-home sites where those uprooted from Gush Katif live. This way they can tell them one small thing: I'm sorry.

Tzipi Livni, Ehud Olmert, Shaul Mofaz and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israel Defense Forces and the police should do this - they, their agents and everyone else who initiated, implemented and aided in using force to uproot 10,000 people from their homes in Gush Katif and Northern Samaria, maliciously and without any real purpose. Everyone who saw some good in the evil of the disengagement and evil in the good of Gush Katif has turned light into darkness and darkness into light. At the very least, they are obligated to make this small apology.

This includes the judges of the High Court of Justice who did not even bother to visit Gush Katif and made due with defense experts acting on behalf of the state "because that is the postion of the court since it was founded." The justices who ruled as they did because they automatically assumed that such a plan "improves the security situation" because "the evacuation reduces the desire of the Palestinians to harm the Israeli population." It would be appropriate for the honorable justices to take a vacation day as an act of forgiveness and go down south for a close-up look at the results of their decisions.

This also includes the media, which provided a challenge for Ariel Sharon and allowed him to turn a prosperous agricultural land, a world full of communities, synagogues, yeshivas and magnificent educational institutions into piles of rubble. Also the heads of the IDF and Shin Bet security service who never spoke in public what they whispered in the backrooms, and the soldiers and policemen who dragged the pioneers of Kfar Darom and Neveh Dekalim from their houses while raining blows on the demonstrators who understood what would come.

The apology must also include everyone who painted those who warned that the rockets from Gaza would reach Sderot, Ashdod and Be'er Sheva as delusional and opponents of peace. Everyone who promised that they would "give it to them" after the first Qassam, but in the end cried about the moral and international constraints that prevented them from doing so, and for years abandoned the south. It must include those who took the name of democracy in vain and aided Sharon in deceiving Likud members and breaking his promises to honor Likud's decisions once it became clear to Sharon that the party's members did not agree with him.

You, too, who paid almost no attention to the hundreds of thousands who tried to stop the evil, who paid no attention to those who internalized the lessons of Oslo and warned that we should not give them land and guns again. You who paid no attention to those who warned of the Hamastan state, foresaw exactly the trajectories of the rockets, and understood that this was something we gave away for free, a further disintegration of our power of deterrence and an adrenaline shot for terror.

Now rise and ask for forgiveness from those who paid the highest price, with their bodies, souls and property for your close-mindedness, arrogance and wickedness. Ask for forgiveness from the Gush Katif expellees, the noble souls who did not steal land from anyone, who made the empty dunes bloom as ambassadors of the State of Israel and who turned into the south's security buffer and absorbed over 6,000 Qassams and mortar shells with their bodies and belongings in the last years of Gush Katif.

Ask for forgiveness from those who swore to "win with love" - who believed and sowed until the very last minute; from those who did not raise a hand against the soldiers. Apologize to those who continued to enlist in the IDF and pay the ultimate price even after they were expelled from their houses, because they understood that the state - the national homeland of the Jewish people, even within limited borders - is still bigger than any mistaken and confused government.

There is no way to know if they will forgive you, but you at least need to ask.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1056966.html